Homemade Forecasting: How to Predict Trends

"You see, you'll never be able to foresee fashion trends. One celebrity can catch the flu and go for a walk while carrying a bag from which a random red handkerchief leans out, carefully placed by his elderly mother. The next day, red handkerchiefs in a bag would become a trend every fashion follower loved. You can't know it in advance," they say.

We say, "You can." Fashion does not exist in the chaos of the unexpected, and truthfully, followers of trendy fashion may be divided into two groups: the ones who create it and the ones who desperately haunt it.

For the first time, fashion appeared as an indicator of the layers of society. The highest social class wanted to be separated from "those plebeians", so they wore different colors, shapes, and cuts. Of course, there weren't any medieval chats, and word of mouth that fashionista lady Elizabeth had introduced the trend of velvet hats was spreading slowly.

Bernard Shaw once said that fashion is nothing but an induced epidemic, and this epidemic reached its peak with the Internet and fast fashion. We no longer need to wait for a carrier pigeon to know new trends, and progress in clothing manufacturing provides us with desired items at once. Although there are still some echoes of the past.

A fad is usually introduced (the first period) on the catwalk, being worn by some celebrities, and then fades away. It deserves to be the trend, but fads are out of practicality, have appeared too soon, or the audience doesn't get it. You don't have to look too far for an example. Metal-structure dresses by Loewe presented as part of the Spring 2023 Ready-To-Wear show may trigger every loving-shine crow. It was also worn by Zendaya just seven days after the catwalk. Gorgeous yet not so comfortable to wear, it is a fad that will be mostly worn by celebrities but not by others. From here comes the second rule: an item may become a trend when it's convenient to wear.

A fashion trend lives in the introduction, growth, and maturity periods. As a fad, it is first seen on catwalks and celebrities. Then comes explosive growth. Magazines write about it on their pages, through their accounts, and put it in the top-5 hottest fashion trends. The collections presented on the catwalks are made and fashion houses have just launched the trend on their shelves. If you want, you may buy viral items in this period, but the number of zeros on a price tag would be inappropriate. After that, the trend appears in more affordable showrooms and stores. It only began to trickle down and reach its peak. More time and it's all over the mass market and worn by every third person you meet. It's no longer relevant. Soon it will be annoying and disappear in a moment. The third rule: buy trends when they appear in accessible luxury and premium-segment brands.

Basic products have the very same life as trends, but they grow slowly, surrounded by modest popularity rather than hype, and their lives end with their acceptance as classics. If it's suitable for plenty of outfits and easily mixed with other garments, it is or will be long-lasting. The examples are a leather jacket, a little black dress, and Chelsea boots.

Thanks to technology, you can already analyze the latest Fashion Week and note possible trends by yourself. Of course, you can also just read fashion reports from forecasters, specialists whose work is to analyze the fashion world and "predict" trends. They examine the global environment, culture, and needs of people to say, for example, that after the release of the movie Dune, clothes with elements of futurism will have a huge demand, or that with economic decline, the smart casual style will go viral. Forecasting is needed, and almost all fashion companies use their service. More than that, the companies mainly go to one big forecasting agency, World Global Style Network (WGSN), and that's the reason why in different stores you see exactly the same patterns, fabrics, and items. Sad but true, it's not just one big conspiracy theory discussed behind closed doors.

So how do you do the work of the whole agency? You have two ways to analyze it: by yourself or by going to forecasting sites. One of the site's gems is Tagwalk, where you can check out women's and men's fashion trends divided into seasons and years. Another one is Lyst, following fashion day and night and creating trend lists every season.

And speaking of another way, there are three steps. Firstly, you open the last three seasons' fashion shows, on Vogue Runway, for example, and note the repetitive colors, details, and structures to notice the consistency and order of fashion. Also, you will see the fact and rule number four: fashion is like a pendulum of contrast. When we were tired of the high waist, we fell in love with the low waist. After the boom of oversize, we wanted to show more skin and figure silhouettes.

Secondly, you start to learn about fashion history. The unstoppable cycle that is spinned by the hamster named Fashion is known by everyone, but in recent years it has started to jump between centuries. After the trendy fashion of the noughties, we can move to the 60s' fashion. By that step, you learn to recognize the signs of the future viral century. For example, corsets became a trend this summer, and 64 outfits with crinoline were presented at Fashion Week. It seems we will soon jump into the Victorian fashion era. The fifth rule: fashion is cyclic but not straightforward.

Thirdly and lastly, you analyze the street stylers and their outfits. When designers show their collection on catwalks, it is loud and variegated; in a word, heavy fashion. Street fashionistas turn it into a wearable one, adapting it for ordinary life. And that's the moment of realization that your 58 followed accounts of fashion bloggers are not useless, and while scrolling through the feed, you work really hard.

All in all, fashion is not only about clothes but also your personality, emotions, and environment. When you learn to understand yourself and the people around you, predicting trends becomes second nature. Who knows, perhaps an old bag with My Little Pony print from your childhood will become a trend after a humanized Netflix series is released, and you will be the owner of the vintage trend, making others envious.